By Chris Keller, CFA, co-portfolio manager of Archean Capital Partners and Managing Director at Moelis Asset Management. LinkedIn. : Welcome to Portfolio for the Future! All About Alpha is now Portfolio for the Future, located here at caia.org. By Chris Keller, CFA, co-portfolio manager of Archean Capital Partners and Managing Director at Moelis Asset Management. LinkedIn A well-informed decision starts with an understanding of base rates. What is the probability of an outcome based on historical data? And then using base rates to suitably calibrate conviction.