Last month’s estimate of “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield suggested that an upside bias for this benchmark rate was likely, or at least plausible. A month later, that outlook turned out to be spot on. Today’s update still suggests that more upside for the 10-year rate is still a reasonable view. Since the last column (Sep. 10), the 10-year yield climbed from 1.35% to 1.59% (Oct. 12). A new run of fair-value estimates suggests that the macro backdrop still favors a case for higher rates, or at least keeping the current rate steady.