Several factors have contributed to a slowdown in economic activity in 2019. Global trade wars have hurt U.S. exports and domestic manufacturing production. Trade wars have also impacted the economies of our major trading partners, which compounds the domestic damage caused by tariffs. In addition, these effects are taking place in an economy that was already slowing from an above-trend pace in 2018 that had been boosted by the tax cuts in 2017. There are two key questions for investors in commercial real estate. First, how likely is it that the current slowing could lead to a recession?