Two analysts recently warned that so-called soft economic data has become less reliable for profiling the macro trend. “We believe the soft data, and subsequent forecasts, are suffering from a circular reference due to groupthink, herd mentality and political preferences,” Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) and Ben Breitholtz (Arbor Research & Trading) opined last month. If they’re right, indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey offers less insight for monitoring the business cycle.