The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply yesterday, dropping to 1.37% — the lowest since late-February. The ongoing decline offers more support for arguing that the reflation trade is fading. The final verdict will take time to sort out, however, in part because the debate over inflation’s trajectory remains a gray zone until convincing hard data brings clarity on the question of whether the recent surge in pricing pressure is transitory or persistent. That’s going to take several months at a bare minimum, and probably much longer.
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