A prominent U.S. hedge fund manager has welcomed the gradual recovery in the global economy over the last decade, but believes the world is most of the way through the expansion and that a very difficult downturn is probably two or three years away. "I believe that in the next two to three years, there is a significant probability of a downturn in the world economy," Ray Dalio, founder and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates LP, the world's largest hedge fund firm, said in a telephone interview 10 years on from the 2008 financial crisis.