Hindsight bias can lead to second-guessing investment professionals, writes Mark Hulbert. : Hindsight bias is at work when, after something has come to pass, we exaggerate the confidence we had in advance that things would turn out this way. Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman of Princeton and the late Amos Tversky were among the first researchers to document this behavior among investors. (Here’s what Kahneman said in a 2016 interview about this bias.) Pernicious as hindsight bias is, it often goes undetected. A recent example of hindsight bias focuses on how we view the stock market’s late-December 2018 low.