Green Street is projecting a risk-adjusted expected return rate of 6.9 percent for seniors housing. : In its analysis of commercial real estate pricing and growth, Newport Beach, Calif.-based research firm Green Street Advisors projects seniors housing will experience a dip in NOI in 2018, but growth in 2020, 2021 and 2022 could outpace the broader major sector averages. For 2018, the firm is projecting seniors housing will see NOI drop 1.0 percent—the only sector to decline. But things will begin to turn in 2019 with NOI growth of 1.1 percent.