This month’s upcoming release of preliminary second-quarter economic data is expected to show an impressive acceleration in growth following Q1’s strong rise in gross domestic product. The update on July 29 will be rightly celebrated as a highlight of America’s continued economic rebound from last year’s pandemic-induced recession. For the bond market, however, Q2 data is already ancient history and the focus has shifted to the second half of the year. The key question: Will Q2 mark peak growth for the current business cycle? The Treasury market has been edging toward that conclusion by trimming yields in recent months.
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